Victorian Public Transport Intelligence

Network pressure map findings

These two map graphics turn the passenger-count analysis into a public-facing network view. The broader Melbourne map shows line-level annual boardings and the strongest peak train-load pressure points across the metro network. The inner-west map zooms into the western corridor, including Footscray, Sunshine, North Melbourne, Newport, Spotswood, Yarraville, Laverton, Werribee and the Williamstown branch.

1. Annual boardings and peak train pressure are different measures. Pakenham was the highest line by annual boardings in this analysis, with about 21.6 million boardings in FY23-24. The strongest peak train-load figure, however, was on the Belgrave line, where the analysis recorded a maximum load of 2,380 passengers in the PM peak down direction. Total patronage therefore does not tell the full pressure story.
2. Some line-direction peak-load points are very large. The strongest visible peak-direction loads include Belgrave PM down 2,380, Williamstown PM up 2,020, Craigieburn AM up 1,960, Frankston PM down 1,960, Cranbourne AM up 1,840, and Pakenham / Glen Waverley AM up 1,780. These are maximum departure-load figures, not annual totals and not typical loads on every train.
3. Footscray is a major western rail pressure point. In the inner-west activity-intensity measure used here, Footscray stands out clearly, followed by Sunshine, North Melbourne and Newport. The activity-intensity values shown on the map are boardings per stop record, not millions.
4. Spotswood is smaller, but strategically placed. Spotswood does not have the activity level of Footscray, Sunshine or Newport, but it sits on the western corridor between Newport and Yarraville. That makes it useful to analyse as part of the broader movement system through Melbourne's west.

The purpose of the maps is to show where people board and alight, which direction the pressure is moving, where the biggest onboard train loads occur, which stations act as interchange points and how the western corridor connects into the broader network.

Patronage recovery and demand shift findings

This layer combines public transport patronage data, station-entry data and GTFS timetable supply data. GTFS is the General Transit Feed Specification: the standard format used for stops, routes, trips and scheduled stop times.

The main finding is not simply that public transport patronage fell after COVID. The larger story is that demand appears to have shifted. CBD and inner-city commuter-heavy stations remain below their pre-COVID levels, while regional train, regional coach, outer-growth and some suburban stations have recovered more strongly.

The CBD station decline is concentrated around the traditional CBD hierarchy: Flinders Street, Southern Cross, Parliament, Melbourne Central and Flagstaff. At the same time, growth-corridor stations such as Tarneit, Rockbank, Wyndham Vale, Craigieburn and Merinda Park show the other side of the story. This is better read as a redistribution story than a simple decline story.

The station concentration results also matter: a relatively small number of stations carry a very large share of station-entry patronage. When the biggest CBD stations fall, the whole network story changes.

GTFS supply and station-pressure interpretation

This section matches annual station-entry demand against scheduled service-supply records from GTFS. It is a pressure proxy, not a formal crowding model. It does not account for train length, vehicle capacity, interchange behaviour, service cancellations, platform-level crowding or vehicle-by-vehicle load.

Even with those limits, it is useful as a screening tool because it highlights stations where recorded patronage appears high or low relative to timetable supply. In the refined matching layer, 315 of 316 station-entry rows were matched to GTFS timetable supply records, with 2 special-event station rows flagged separately and only 1 station row remaining unmatched.

The inner-west results are especially useful: Footscray remains the major pressure node, Yarraville and Newport show high entries per scheduled departure record, and Spotswood is smaller but notable because it is one of the selected inner-west stations showing positive recovery compared with FY18-19.

Train passenger-count intelligence findings

This layer uses station activity, passenger-count boardings and alightings, line-level annual boardings, direction-level peak loads, inner-west station intensity and station-entry versus passenger-count comparisons. It is designed to answer a more specific question than “which line is busiest overall?”: where is the network actually under pressure when people are trying to travel?

1. Flinders Street and Southern Cross remain in a league of their own. By total passenger-count activity in FY23-24, Flinders Street is the clear giant, followed by Southern Cross and Richmond. The network is still highly concentrated around the CBD core and major interchange gateways.
2. The highest-boarding lines are not always the highest-pressure lines. Top lines by annual boardings include Pakenham 21.6M, Lilydale 18.6M, Craigieburn 17.4M, Frankston 16.8M, Werribee 16.5M, Mernda 16.2M, Sunbury 16.2M and Cranbourne 15.8M. Maximum departure-load rankings tell a different and more operationally useful story.
3. AM and PM peaks behave differently. AM peak pressure is strongly city-bound. PM peak pressure spreads outward, with very large outbound loads appearing on several line-direction combinations.
4. Footscray is a major western redistribution point. The Footscray line-direction breakdown shows its role across Werribee, Sunbury, Williamstown and regional-corridor related movement. This confirms Footscray is not merely a busy suburban station; it is a major western interchange.
5. Station-entry versus passenger-count comparisons are diagnostic, not accusatory. Large gaps at places such as Flinders Street, Southern Cross, Richmond, North Melbourne, Flagstaff, Parliament and Footscray show that the datasets measure different things. This is not proof of fare evasion; it is a validation-gap and methodology-screening layer.

Regional corridor labels such as “Western”, “South Western” and “Northern” come from the passenger-count data and should not be read as ordinary suburban Metro line names. They broadly refer to regional movements through corridors such as Ballarat/Western, Geelong/South Western and Bendigo/Northern. “U” means Up / toward the city, and “D” means Down / away from the city.