West Gate Tunnel Kensington Truck Impact Analysis

+1.77%Kensington Jan-Mar 2026 vs Jan-Mar 2025 across 15 candidate SCATS sites

699,150Net Kensington candidate-site movement change year-on-year

11 up / 4 downSite-level direction of movement change in Jan-Mar year-on-year sample

-162,295West Gate Bridge TIRTL truck change in Nov-Dec 2025 vs Jan-Feb 2026 reference window

Executive finding

The data supports a local redistribution story, not a simple one-line claim

Across the 15 selected Kensington SCATS candidate sites, Jan-Mar 2026 was +1.77% compared with Jan-Mar 2025: 39,609,750 movements in Jan-Mar 2025 versus 40,308,900 in Jan-Mar 2026.

The key story is unevenness. Several Macaulay, Kensington and Epsom-related sites rose sharply, while several Racecourse/Smithfield-related sites fell. That makes the page useful for testing resident and council concerns about changed local traffic patterns after the West Gate Tunnel opened.

Bottom line: the current evidence shows strong local SCATS movement changes at some Kensington/Macaulay/Epsom sites. It does not by itself prove street-level truck classification changes on those roads.

Important caveat

SCATS movement volume is not the same as classified truck volume

The Kensington files are strongest for SCATS signal-site movement change. The TIRTL layer gives West Gate Bridge truck/freight corridor context, but the current evidence pack does not classify trucks street-by-street on Kensington Rd, Epsom Rd or Macaulay Rd.

Therefore: traffic movement patterns changed at relevant local signal sites, and the freight context is regionally relevant — but further vehicle-classification data would be required to prove local truck increases.

Strongest local increases

Macaulay / Kensington / Epsom sites that rose year-on-year

Site	Location	Jan-Mar 2025	Jan-Mar 2026	Change	Map
SCATS 4484	Macaulay / Streetubbs MACAULAY/STUBBS	1,782,325	2,707,809	925,484 +51.93%	Map
SCATS 4469	RACECOURSE near CROWN RACECOURSE NR CROWN	6,906,215	7,253,549	347,334 +5.03%	Map
SCATS 3404	Kensington / Hobsons / Childers KENSINGTON/HOBSONS/CHILDERS	816,915	1,092,237	275,322 +33.70%	Map
SCATS 2524	EPSOM near BANGALORE EPSOM NR BANGALORE	2,453,478	2,702,195	248,717 +10.14%	Map
SCATS 3436	KENSINGTON near DEVON KENSINGTON NR DEVON	551,065	795,857	244,792 +44.42%	Map
SCATS 3403	Kensington Road / Altona Street KENSINGTON RD/ALTONA ST	610,487	847,461	236,974 +38.82%	Map
SCATS 4480	Macaulay / Epsom / Kensington MACAULAY/EPSOM/KENSINGTON	1,201,708	1,371,169	169,461 +14.10%	Map

Counter-balance

Sites that fell year-on-year

Site	Location	Jan-Mar 2025	Jan-Mar 2026	Change	Map
SCATS 2502	Smithfield / Gatehouse / Streetables SMITHFIELD/GATEHOUSE/STABLES	6,370,671	5,378,463	-992,208 -15.57%	Map
SCATS 2500	Racecourse / Smithfield RACECOURSE/SMITHFIELD	4,825,868	4,298,668	-527,200 -10.92%	Map
SCATS 2939	Racecourse / Newmarket RACECOURSE/NEWMARKET	3,491,056	3,270,449	-220,607 -6.32%	Map
SCATS 4481	MACAULAY near BELLAIR MACAULAY NR BELLAIR	912,952	782,264	-130,688 -14.31%	Map
SCATS 1064	Racecourse / Western Link On / Off Ramps RACECOURSE/WESTERN LINK ON/OFF RAMPS	3,587,082	3,605,005	17,923 +0.50%	Map

Relevant streets from the article

Kensington, Macaulay and Epsom-related signal sites

This table isolates the named road family raised by the local article and council discussion: Kensington Rd, Epsom Rd and Macaulay Rd. It is the most directly relevant SCATS evidence for the local concern.

Site	Location	Jan-Mar 2025	Jan-Mar 2026	Change	Map
SCATS 4484	Macaulay / Streetubbs MACAULAY/STUBBS	1,782,325	2,707,809	925,484 +51.93%	Map
SCATS 3404	Kensington / Hobsons / Childers KENSINGTON/HOBSONS/CHILDERS	816,915	1,092,237	275,322 +33.70%	Map
SCATS 2524	EPSOM near BANGALORE EPSOM NR BANGALORE	2,453,478	2,702,195	248,717 +10.14%	Map
SCATS 3436	KENSINGTON near DEVON KENSINGTON NR DEVON	551,065	795,857	244,792 +44.42%	Map
SCATS 3403	Kensington Road / Altona Street KENSINGTON RD/ALTONA ST	610,487	847,461	236,974 +38.82%	Map
SCATS 4480	Macaulay / Epsom / Kensington MACAULAY/EPSOM/KENSINGTON	1,201,708	1,371,169	169,461 +14.10%	Map
SCATS 2501	Princes Hwy West(Smithfield) / Epsom PRINCES HWY WEST(SMITHFIELD)/EPSOM	3,484,619	3,537,198	52,579 +1.51%	Map
SCATS 4481	MACAULAY near BELLAIR MACAULAY NR BELLAIR	912,952	782,264	-130,688 -14.31%	Map

Visual summary

Kensington candidate SCATS sites — movement change by site

Positive bars show higher Jan-Mar 2026 movements than Jan-Mar 2025. Negative bars show lower movements.

SCATS 4484
Macaulay / Streetubbs

925,484
+51.93%

SCATS 4469
RACECOURSE near CROWN

347,334
+5.03%

SCATS 3404
Kensington / Hobsons / Childers

275,322
+33.70%

SCATS 2524
EPSOM near BANGALORE

248,717
+10.14%

SCATS 3436
KENSINGTON near DEVON

244,792
+44.42%

SCATS 3403
Kensington Road / Altona Street

236,974
+38.82%

SCATS 4480
Macaulay / Epsom / Kensington

169,461
+14.10%

SCATS 2501
Princes Hwy West(Smithfield) / Epsom

52,579
+1.51%

SCATS 3989
Bakehouse Dr / Lloyd Street

28,332
+2.71%

SCATS 3764
Arden / Lloyd

22,935
+1.46%

SCATS 1064
Racecourse / Western Link On / Off Ramps

17,923
+0.50%

SCATS 4481
MACAULAY near BELLAIR

-130,688
-14.31%

SCATS 2939
Racecourse / Newmarket

-220,607
-6.32%

SCATS 2500
Racecourse / Smithfield

-527,200
-10.92%

SCATS 2502
Smithfield / Gatehouse / Streetables

-992,208
-15.57%

Short post-opening window

Nov-Dec 2025 vs Jan-Feb 2026 tells a different, shorter-window story

The western-suburbs post-opening layer compared Nov-Dec 2025 with Jan-Feb 2026. In that short window, the 42-site western-suburbs set fell -6.69%, while Kensington's 15-site subset fell -4.57%.

Area	Sites	Nov-Dec 2025	Jan-Feb 2026	Change
Kensington	15	27,706,010	26,438,578	-1,267,432 -4.57%
Yarraville	19	25,566,759	23,074,494	-2,492,265 -9.75%
All four suburbs	42	69,328,947	64,691,209	-4,637,738 -6.69%

Freight context

West Gate Bridge TIRTL reference points show regional freight context

The Kensington map JSON frames SCATS markers as local signal-site traffic and TIRTL markers as West Gate Bridge corridor truck, vehicle and speed behaviour. In the short comparison window, the TIRTL bridge reference points recorded -162,295 truck movements and -469,718 vehicle movements change.

This helps set regional freight context, but it should not be overread as street-level truck classification for Kensington Rd, Epsom Rd or Macaulay Rd.

Open existing interactive map Open Kensington map JSON

Embedded existing map

Existing post-tunnel SCATS + TIRTL western-suburbs map

This embedded map is the uploaded map page. If Google Maps API restrictions prevent iframe loading in some environments, use the button above to open the map directly.

Melbourne-wide context

Where the Kensington sites sit inside the Melbourne-wide Jan-Mar change file

The Melbourne-wide file contains 4,427 SCATS sites. This table lists the Kensington candidate sites with their citywide rank positions by absolute and percentage increase.

Site	Location	Jan-Mar 2025	Jan-Mar 2026	Change	Map
SCATS 4484 All-Melb abs rank: 97 · pct rank: 93	Macaulay / Streetubbs	1,782,325	2,707,809	925,484 +51.93%	Map
SCATS 4469 All-Melb abs rank: 388 · pct rank: 1,183	RACECOURSE near CROWN	6,906,215	7,253,549	347,334 +5.03%	Map
SCATS 3404 All-Melb abs rank: 512 · pct rank: 153	Kensington / Hobsons / Childers	816,915	1,092,237	275,322 +33.70%	Map
SCATS 2524 All-Melb abs rank: 570 · pct rank: 558	EPSOM near BANGALORE	2,453,478	2,702,195	248,717 +10.14%	Map
SCATS 3436 All-Melb abs rank: 588 · pct rank: 110	KENSINGTON near DEVON	551,065	795,857	244,792 +44.42%	Map
SCATS 3403 All-Melb abs rank: 613 · pct rank: 129	Kensington Road / Altona Street	610,487	847,461	236,974 +38.82%	Map
SCATS 4480 All-Melb abs rank: 884 · pct rank: 386	Macaulay / Epsom / Kensington	1,201,708	1,371,169	169,461 +14.10%	Map
SCATS 2501 All-Melb abs rank: 1,995 · pct rank: 2,381	Princes Hwy West(Smithfield) / Epsom	3,484,619	3,537,198	52,579 +1.51%	Map
SCATS 3989 All-Melb abs rank: 2,425 · pct rank: 1,880	Bakehouse Dr / Lloyd Street	1,045,982	1,074,314	28,332 +2.71%	Map
SCATS 3764 All-Melb abs rank: 2,527 · pct rank: 2,400	Arden / Lloyd	1,569,327	1,592,262	22,935 +1.46%	Map
SCATS 1064 All-Melb abs rank: 2,636 · pct rank: 2,769	Racecourse / Western Link On / Off Ramps	3,587,082	3,605,005	17,923 +0.50%	Map
SCATS 4481 All-Melb abs rank: 3,862 · pct rank: 4,110	MACAULAY near BELLAIR	912,952	782,264	-130,688 -14.31%	Map
SCATS 2939 All-Melb abs rank: 4,052 · pct rank: 3,846	Racecourse / Newmarket	3,491,056	3,270,449	-220,607 -6.32%	Map
SCATS 2500 All-Melb abs rank: 4,286 · pct rank: 4,032	Racecourse / Smithfield	4,825,868	4,298,668	-527,200 -10.92%	Map
SCATS 2502 All-Melb abs rank: 4,381 · pct rank: 4,133	Smithfield / Gatehouse / Streetables	6,370,671	5,378,463	-992,208 -15.57%	Map

Freight timing

Broader freight-timing layer

The SCATS+TIRTL freight timing outputs show that the broad worst general traffic window used in this V1 freight layer is commonly 17:15 / PM peak, with the quietest broad general window around 03:00. This is a broad timing layer, not local Kensington truck classification.

Corridor	Risk score	Risk label	Worst window	Truck movements
M1 / Monash Freeway Freeway / motorway corridor	83.49	Very high freight timing risk	17:15 PM peak	103,233,823 5.43%
Princes Freeway Freeway / motorway corridor	32.82	Lower freight timing risk	17:15 PM peak	23,206,085 4.43%
M8 / Western Freeway Freeway / motorway corridor	22.74	Lower freight timing risk	17:15 PM peak	481,105 10.55%
M1 / West Gate Bridge Freeway / motorway corridor	21.31	Lower freight timing risk	17:15 PM peak	2,286,084 7.55%
West Gate Tunnel / West Gate Corridor Freeway / motorway corridor	19.95	Lower freight timing risk	17:15 PM peak	2,854,810 5.96%
A1 Princes Highway Arterial / monitored road corridor	15.88	Lower freight timing risk	17:15 PM peak	92,000 6.94%
Princes Highway Arterial / monitored road corridor	7.14	Lower freight timing risk	17:15 PM peak	127,997 1.08%

Recommended next data request

What would prove the truck question more directly?

To move from traffic movement change to truck movement change on Kensington Rd, Epsom Rd and Macaulay Rd, the next dataset should be vehicle-classified counts for those specific streets, or a TIRTL-style classified screenline close to the relevant local roads.

Until then, the best defensible public claim is that several named local SCATS sites show strong movement increases year-on-year, while the TIRTL evidence provides regional West Gate Bridge freight context.

Public story framing

Media-ready conclusion

The data does not support a simplistic claim that all Kensington traffic rose after the West Gate Tunnel. It does support a more interesting and more defensible story: Kensington appears to have experienced uneven local traffic redistribution, with several Macaulay, Kensington and Epsom-related SCATS sites rising strongly in Jan-Mar 2026 compared with Jan-Mar 2025, while other major nearby sites fell.

That makes the City of Melbourne's investigation into no-truck zones and changed inner-north-west traffic behaviour highly testable. The next step is to obtain or generate street-level heavy-vehicle classification for the specific roads named in the council and resident concerns.

Downloads and audit trail

Evidence files used by this page

File	Download / inspect
Kensington SCATS Jan-Mar 2025 vs 2026	`kensington_jan_mar_2025_vs_2026_by_site.csv`
Post-opening western suburbs SCATS period change	`western_suburbs_scats_period_change.csv`
Western suburbs SCATS period summary JSON	`western_suburbs_scats_period_change_summary.json`
Kensington SCATS/TIRTL map data JSON	`kensington_scats_tirtl_map_data.json`
Existing interactive post-tunnel map HTML	`post-tunnel-western-suburbs-scats-tirtl-map.html`
Melbourne-wide SCATS site changes	`melbourne_scats_site_changes_jan_mar_2025_vs_2026_all_sites.csv`
Top SCATS increases by absolute volume	`melbourne_scats_top_increases_absolute_jan_mar_2025_vs_2026.csv`
Top SCATS increases by percent	`melbourne_scats_top_increases_pct_min500k_jan_mar_2025_vs_2026.csv`
Worst freight time by suburb	`scats_tirtl_worst_freight_time_by_suburb_v1.csv`
Worst freight time by corridor	`scats_tirtl_worst_freight_time_by_corridor_v1.csv`
Truck-heavy freight-led suburbs	`truck_heavy_freight_led_suburbs_v1.csv`
SCATS/TIRTL pressure quadrant layer	`scats_tirtl_pressure_quadrant_map_layer_v1.csv`